Eurozone unemployment in September and the British jobs no-miracle (3 graphs)
from Merijn Knibbe
Eurostat published new data on European unemployment.
* U-3 unemployment in Spain and Greece might soon reach 30%. Broad, U-6 unemployment in Spain is already above that level and might have breached the 35% level. And there is still no sign that the rise of unemployment is abating. It’s an absolute, absolute disaster. There is a famous treatise of J.M. Keynes, “The economic consequences of mr. Churchill” in which he argued against deflationary policies. Recently, a new IMF study showed how right Keynes was: deflationary policies in fact brought down an empire. And we’re doing it all over again.
* For the fourth month running, the data did not show an increase compared with the preceding month – but the level in the preceding month was for the fourth month running increased with 0,1%. I.e: European unemployment, which already has reached a disastrous level, is still increasing.
(click on the graph for a better view)
* There are, as we know, large differences between northern Europe and southern Europe, especially when we take into account that the southern European countries with less high U-3 unemployment know an unusual large difference between ‘normal’ U-3 unemployment and ‘broad’ U-6 unemployment. The entire southern rim of the European Union might at this moment have over 25% ‘broad’ unemployment (graph 1).
* And, except for Germany, unemployment rates in northern Europe are increasing too, at an ever faster rate (graph 2)
* At this moment, there is however some talk about a jobs miracle in the United Kingdom. Well, I do not see it (Eurostat data, which do not include the second quarter of 2012).