America’s drastically shrinking middle-class

December 6, 2021 1 comment

This graph shows how in the USA the share of total net worth held by the 50th to 90th wealth percentiles has decline drastically in the last two decades. Top 50%-90% share of wealth in USA, Q1 2021

https://www.trustnodes.com/2021/07/11/americas-middle-class-drastically-shrinks

Poor economics

December 5, 2021 1 comment

from Lars Syll

Few volumes in contemporary economics have been more lauded, and have summarised a zeitgeist, as much as Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo’s Poor Economics …

buThe implicit premise of the book is that interventions that work in one place can be expected to work in another. This presumes not only that the results of such “micro” interventions are substantially independent of the “macro” context, but also that a focus on such interventions, as opposed to those which reshape that context, is sufficient to address poverty. These premises of “separability” and “sufficiency”, although non-trivial, go largely undiscussed by the authors. The causal relations at work in relation to individuals or households cannot be understood in atomic isolation …

Not surprisingly, one consequence of the approach to development economics championed by the authors is that the questions asked by the discipline have become much smaller. The authors’ position appears to be that this is quite all right, since the small questions are in fact large in importance. It is not easy to accept this, however. The larger questions once asked within the discipline … have been pushed to the background in favour of such questions as whether bed-nets dipped in insecticide should be distributed free of charge or not, or whether two schoolteachers in the classroom are much better than one …

One may argue, in fact, that the style of metropolitan development economics celebrated in this book leads not so much to increasing rigour as to rigor mortis, by severely limiting the questions that can be asked and shoring up a practical philosophy that is quiescent in relation to many important questions that cannot readily be analysed using the authors’ favoured method. These include questions related to the structure and dynamics of markets, governmental institutions, macroeconomic policies, the workings of social classes, castes, and networks, and so forth. Although such questions can only be approached through other methods, they are not the less important for that.

Sanjay Reddy

Most ‘randomistas’ — like Duflo and Banerjee — argue that Read more…

Yes folks, Omicron can be blamed on patent monopolies

December 4, 2021 1 comment

from Dean Baker

The development of the new variant, which was first discovered in South Africa, can be attributed to our failure to open-source our vaccines and freely transfer technology, contrary to claims from the pharmaceutical industry and its political allies. Their big talking point is that South Africa currently has more vaccines than it can effectively use at the moment.

This claim ignores two important points. The first is that we really don’t know where this strain originated. It was first identified in South Africa in part because its screening system happened to catch it. South Africa then did the responsible thing and reported to the world that it had uncovered a new variant.

This doesn’t mean that the Omicron variant originated in South Africa. It has been identified in samples taken in the Netherlands several days before its discovery in South Africa. The variant was also identified in a sample in Nigeria that was taken in October. Since we are not sure where it originated at this point, it’s not clear that South Africa’s current ability to deliver vaccines has much relevance to the development of the omicron variant.

But a second point is even more important. The development of variants depends on the extent of the spread of the virus. The more people who get COVID-19, the more opportunity the virus has to mutate. Read more…

More quotes against economics

December 3, 2021 1 comment

from Asad Zaman

A previous post Quotes Critical of Economics collected assorted quotes which are useful in writing up different kinds of critiques of economics. In addition, I collected quotes from Romer’s Trouble With Macro which are sharply critical of economics. In terms of the “Loyalty, Voice, Exit” paradigm, I look for “Exit” quotes, which suggest that we need to throw out the entire discipline and rebuild on new foundations; for a proposed alternative, see “Uloom-ul-Umran: An Islamic alternative to Western Social Science“. I try to avoid “Voice” critiques which suggest that we can rescue economics by making modifications, minor or major. I have been collecting more quotes along these lines for two years. I was hoping to sort them into categories, and organize them via some commentary, but have not found the time to do so. So instead of waiting longer, I am just publishing them as a random and disorganized collection – given below.  read more

Neoliberalism’s conception of economic reality as . . .

December 3, 2021 Leave a comment

from Lukas Bäuerle and PNLE

The most powerful and at the same time dangerous aspect of neoliberal thought is its conception of economic reality as governed by a separate sphere of absolute truths. In aligning with a long-standing tradition of perennial philosophies (lat. perennis: constant, lasting), neoliberalism has set out to reconfigure our world according to an image that was dead from the very outset. The myth neoliberalism is operating on philosophically is the idea of a world of hidden truths and principles behind the ambiguous and chaotic phenomena we are experiencing in daily life. There is a logic behind the chaos, reigning independently of time and space. This proposition is not just “talk” – it is a deep-seated ontological frame of contemporary economic thought that has found its way into the discipline’s textbooks and, hence, has to be learnt by millions of students around the globe semester after semester (i.e. in Mankiw, 2021, 2ff.). “Stop engaging with reality and start thinking about economic laws working behind the curtains” is what students face but a lot of them intuitively reject (Pühringer and Bäuerle, 2019).

The power of neoliberal thought, then, lies with conquering the public imagination through institutionalized impact and installing the fixed imagery of a narrowly interpreted “Market Mechanism” working miraculously backstage in the theatre of social reality. 

Post-Neoliberal Economics by [Edward  Fullbrook, Jamie Morgan]

Amazon is not identical with your corner shop.

December 2, 2021 2 comments

from Gerald Holtham (originally a comment)

Radford’s points are true but the microfoundations movement in macroeconomics is guilty of greater intellectual crimes than merely attempted reductionism. It is not as if the foundations are built on extensive empirical study of the decision-making elements in an economy. We have a representative consumer who behaves according to the axioms of rational choice under conditions of certainty equivalence. Similarly there is a representative firm modelled in the same way. So we start with illegitimate aggregates, illegitimate because the behavioural reaction functions are not strictly linear so the aggregate would behave like an individual only if all individuals were identical. Spoiler alert: Elon Musk is not absolutely identical with the homeless guy in the doorway. Amazon is not identical with your corner shop. Moreover, there is no empirical basis for the supposed individual behaviour anyway, since empirical work from the Allais paradox on has often found the axioms of choice are violated in the case of the consumer.. And companies do not generally have a set of well defined strategies before them and know the consequences of each at least probabilistically. People do not operate under conditions of certainty equivalence and how they actually deal with uncertainty is not considered or explored. These are not microfoundations. They are not really micro and are themselves without any empirical foundation. Yet every macroeconomist who produces a theory or proposition is encouraged to jump through the pointless hoops of showing it is consistent with optimisation by non-existent representative agents. I wonder if there has ever been a greater distortion of a serious discipline. Read more…

Mainstream economics — a harmful fantasy

December 1, 2021 15 comments

from Lars Syll

The New Economics: A Manifesto: Keen, Steve: 9781509545285: Public Policy: Amazon CanadaAnyone who accepts the Neoclassical definition of ‘rational’ has, to some significant degree, lost touch with reality. So, I was expecting an ‘irrational’ reaction from this young zealot to my talk …

He tried to engage me in further debate after the session, and shouted ‘But we have to make some simplifying assumptions!’ at me as I left the seminar room. My riposte, cast over my receding shoulder, was ‘Mate, you have to learn the difference between a simplifying assumption and a fantasy’.

Many mainstream economists working in the field of economic theory think that their task is to give us analytical truths. That is great — from a mathematical and formal logical point of view. In science, however, it is rather uninteresting and totally uninformative! The framework of the analysis is too narrow. Even if economic theory gives us ‘logical’ truths, that is not what we are looking for as scientists. We are interested in finding truths that give us new information and knowledge of the world in which we live. Read more…

More is different: a redux

December 1, 2021 14 comments

from Peter Radford

“Formation is the vanishing of being into nothing, and the vanishing of nothing into being”

Hegel loved his dialectics.  But it isn’t just contrasts that illuminate reality.  It is connections also. Connections matter.  Single things are interesting.  Perhaps even intriguing.  But it is the way in which things connect that leads us to the better understanding of our surroundings and of ourselves.

Our modern world rests largely on a web of technology that mediates our existence and removes us from our primitive origins.  We pride ourselves on this web.  Our ability to render nature compliant and exploit both our context and our intellect to produce comfortable lifestyles is the essence of modernity.  Any brief study of the past two hundred years will astonish us at the gulf in everyday existence between now and then.  We really do seem to have broken the Malthusian grip that nature held us within for so long.

A great part of that ability to break free consists in our imposition of reasoning on the problems previously preventing us from escape.  We learned to abstract.  We learned practical problem solving.  We learned both to reduce problems to solvable sizes and then to reconstitute solutions from those now-known component parts.  We created, to borrow from Brian Arthur, a reliance on modularity: we learned to build technologies from various parts.  And each part itself was itself modular.  The implied reductionism in this prompted the illusion that the method for superior knowledge was always through breaking things apart and re-assembling them once we knew what each part did.  

Economics took heed of this method and ran with it as if the economy was a technology comprised of parts easily assembled back into a whole.  Economics is justifiably proud of its internal logic.  But is it something that matches reality well? Read more…

New WEA book

November 30, 2021 Leave a comment

Kindle $8.00
US UK DE FR ES IT NL JP BR CA MX AU IN

Paperback $22.00
US UK DE FR ES IT JP CA


Contributors:
 Richard Parker, Richard B. Norgaard, James K. Galbraith, Lukas Bäuerle, William E. Rees, Jayati Ghosh, Richard C. Koo, Neva Goodwin, Max Koch, Jayeon Lindellee, Johanna Alkan Olsson, Katharine N. Farrell, John Komlos, Clive L. Spash, Adrien O.T. Guisan, Andri W. Stahel, Jamie Morgan, Edward Fullbrook

 

If you feel that there is nothing new or liberal about neoliberal economics, and that neoliberal economics is to understanding capitalism what astrology is to understanding the Cosmos, read this book!   Yanis Varoufakis

In fighting COVID-19, intellectual property, not antitrust, is the real problem

November 30, 2021 1 comment

from Dean Baker

Former New York Times reporter Donald McNeil had an interesting Medium piece on how antitrust law could be impeding the development of effective treatments for COVID-19. McNeil argued that COVID-19 treatments that were developed by Pfizer and Merck, and are now in the final stages of testing, may work best when taken together.

He argues that this may be the case because the drugs use two fundamentally different mechanisms for attacking the virus. By using the two in combination, we would be maximizing the likelihood that at least one would be effective. This has been the approach followed with effective H.I.V. drugs, as well as Hepatitis C treatments.

McNeil argues that the reason combinations are not pursued is because of antitrust laws. If, instead of competing with their different drugs, two giant drug manufacturers, like Pfizer and Merck, were to collaborate to produce the best possible treatment for COVID-19, they would be risking an antitrust action from the government or competing drug companies. McNeil recommends waiving antitrust rules when lifesaving medications are involved.

While that would clearly be desirable in this case, it is worth stepping back a minute. Let’s imagine Read more…

Rational expectations — the triumph of ideology over science

November 29, 2021 9 comments

from Lars Syll

Senate Banking Subcommittee On Financial Institutions Hearing With Stiglitz For more than 20 years, economists were enthralled by so-called “rational expectations” models which assumed that all participants have the same (if not perfect) information and act perfectly rationally, that markets are perfectly efficient, that unemployment never exists (except when caused by greedy unions or government minimum wages), and where there is never any credit rationing.

That such models prevailed, especially in America’s graduate schools, despite evidence to the contrary, bears testimony to a triumph of ideology over science. Unfortunately, students of these graduate programmes now act as policymakers in many countries, and are trying to implement programmes based on the ideas that have come to be called market fundamentalism … Good science recognises its limitations, but the prophets of rational expectations have usually shown no such modesty.

Joseph Stiglitz 

Read more…

A golden age of macro economic statistics 3. Informal and precarious labor.

November 28, 2021 Leave a comment

In September 2021, a Dutch judge decided, in a case of the FNV Union against Uber, that Uber drivers are employees, not dependent or independent contractors. Meaning, on the micro level, that these employees in one stroke were entitled to more money, more protection and more rights. In the macro-conceptual framework of the International Labour Organization (ILO) this means that they shifted from a somewhat informal status to a formal status (see below). While it shows up, in the conceptual framework of the economist Guy Standing, as a shift from the ‘precariat’ towards the ‘salariat’:

the old salaried class has splintered into two groups: the salariat, with strong employment security and an array of non-wage forms of remuneration, and a small but rapidly growing group of proficians. The latter, which includes small-scale businesses, consists of workers who are project-oriented, entrepreneurial, multi-skilled, and likely to suffer from burn-out sooner or later. Traditionally, the next income group down has been the proletariat, but old notions of a mass working class are out-dated, since there is no common situation among workers. The earlier norm of this diminishing male-dominated class was a lifetime of stable full-time labor, in which a range of entitlements called “labor rights” was built up alongside negotiated wages. As the proletariat shrinks, a new class is evolving—the precariat”.

Source: Standing, G. (2014) ‘The precariat’, Contexts 13-4, pp. 10-12.

Source: ILO (2021), Conceptual Framework for Statistics on the Informal Economy (Geneva) p.  48.

Read more…

The fatal flaw of mathematics

November 27, 2021 13 comments

from Lars Syll

Gödel’s incompleteness theorems raise important questions about the foundations of mathematics.

The most important concerns the question of how to select the specific systems of axioms that mathematics are supposed to be founded on. Gödel’s theorems irrevocably show that no matter what system is chosen, there will always have to be other axioms to prove previously unproved truths.

This, of course, ought to be of paramount interest for those mainstream economists who still adhere to the dream of constructing a deductive-axiomatic economics with analytic truths that do not require empirical verification. Since Gödel showed that any complex axiomatic system is undecidable and incomplete, any such deductive-axiomatic economics will always consist of some undecidable statements. When not even being able to fulfil the dream of a complete and consistent axiomatic foundation for mathematics, it’s totally incomprehensible that some people still think that could be achieved for economics. Read more…

Causality as child’s play

November 26, 2021 1 comment

from Asad Zaman

1      THE DILEMMA OF CAUSALITY

Tips for teaching your child to play nicely with others | Boys TownStudy of causality confronts us with a huge dilemma. Intense controversy has raged for centuries over this topic among the philosophers. At the same time, studies of child development show that infants learn about causal concepts almost from birth, and toddlers have a sophisticated approach to causality. How can causality be easily understood by babies, but remain confusing and complicated to the best philosophers for centuries? The difficulty is compounded by the fact that philosophical approaches serve as a basis for empirical data analysis in statistics and econometrics. Even though correct estimation of causal effects is essential for policy, widely used econometric textbooks are deeply defective in their approaches to causality.

Angrist and Pischke (2017) examine leading popular econometrics textbooks and conclude that these are based on an outmoded paradigm which ignores causality. They call for a pedagogical paradigm shift. Chen and Pearl (2013) also examine six leading econometrics textbooks and come to the same conclusion: these textbooks fail to explain central causal concepts with any degree of clarity. Even though Angrist and Pischke agree with Chen and Pearl on the diagnosis, the two sets of authors offer radically different remedies. Since the 1990’s Pearl and his group have been arguing for an approach based on Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as central to understanding causality. Angrist and Pischke (2008, 2013) have written two econometrics textbooks which exposit causality using a “Potential Outcomes” approach, and make no mention of DAGs. Thus, while everyone agrees that causality is very poorly handled in econometrics, there is no agreement about the solution to this problem. This has serious implications since philosophical controversies about causality ramify to the policy context involving real data and applications.  read more

The proliferation and efflorescence of indicators

November 26, 2021 Leave a comment

from Ken Zimmerman (originally a comment)

In the early 20th century the emergence of the United States as a global force unparalleled and nearly unrivaled in material might catapulted obscure economic indicators into central, abiding elements of national life. No “man on the street” would have given a thought to gross national product or national income in the 1920s or at any point before then, and not simply because that number didn’t exist. People wouldn’t have thought of their nation or their society or their own lives in terms of the collective material production of their country. And they would not have marked success or failure by a series of indicators.

That changed markedly after World War II, for two reasons. Though the basic contours of unemployment, GDP, and inflation were formed in the 1930s, not until after the war did they coalesce into simple, straightforward statistics that could be tracked, issued, and debated on a regular, ongoing basis. In essence, the numbers were invented in the 1930s but marketed only after 1945. And with a few leading indicators in hand, people went about doing what they always do: they invented more.

Marketing was crucial; without that, the numbers might have remained useful but obscure. The proliferation of indicators after the war was driven Read more…

Is there a “policy”?

November 25, 2021 1 comment

from Peter Radford

I read this morning that the Federal Reserve had bought, at the peak of the recent crisis, about 40% of all US government bonds being issued.

This may, to some of you, be something of no concern.

Think again

The illusion that there are separate spaces for monetary and fiscal policy is belied by this fact.  Which one was it?  Was it the Fed flooding the economy with money?  Or was it the government issuing debt to finance economic support? I suppose it was both.  But it wasn’t fiscal policy.  The effect of all that money was simply to support asset prices.  Whether that was the intention is irrelevant.  The flood found its way into the financial system and relatively little found its way into the economy in the form of an expansion of productive activity.  We could go further: a great deal of what expansion of capacity actually occurred went abroad to build fragile supply chains and take advantage of low wages in distant parts.

What also happened was that households sat on the portion of the flood that they received as a hedge against further economic mayhem.  And when, as now, they began to feel more confident they started to spend the money on goods rather than services.  Remember that the economy is heavily skewed towards consumption, and within that, towards services.  The problem with services is that they tend to be in-person.  And being in-person is something a lot of people are avoiding right now.  So they decided to switch and buy goods instead. Read more…

What killed macroeconomics?

November 25, 2021 13 comments

from Lars Syll

The COVID-19 pandemic impelled governments to fall back on “fiscal Keynesianism,” because there was no way that just increasing the quantity of money could lead to the reopening of businesses that were prevented by law from doing so. Fiscal Keynesianism in the big lockdown meant issuing Treasury payments to people prevented from working.risk vs uncertainty

But now that the economy has reopened, the practical rationale for monetary and fiscal expansion has disappeared. Mainstream financial commentators believe the economy will bounce back as if nothing had happened. After all, economies fall into foxholes no more often than individuals normally do. So, the time has come to tighten both monetary and fiscal policy, because continued expansion of either or both will lead only to a “surge in inflation.” We can all breathe a sigh of relief; the trauma is over, and normal life without unemployment will resume.

Monetary policy works in theory but not in practice; fiscal policy works in practice but not in theory. Fiscal Keynesianism is still a policy in search of a theory. Read more…

Consumer prices 1209-2020

November 24, 2021 1 comment

from Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler

This long-term consumer price series shows that, after 1900, inflation changed in two important ways: Read more…

For nearly the last 45 years the US has taken the wrong road

November 23, 2021 6 comments

from Ken Zimmerman (originally a comment)

I shall be telling this with a sigh

Somewhere ages and ages hence:

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—

I took the one less traveled by,

And that has made all the difference.

Robert Frost.

Frost’s poem is usually interpreted with a positive spin. I give it just the opposite interpretation here.

Commenting today on the world around us is difficult because for nearly the last 45 years the US has taken the wrong road. On the economic side the US has tried to force a brutal neoliberal agenda down the throat first of the world’s poorest nations, then the USSR after 1990, then the developed nations, and finally every non-wealthy American citizen. That effort increased world poverty, especially among children, even in the US, destroyed the US as a manufacturing nation, put the final nails in the coffin of the American middle-class and decimated American workers, deeply embittered three generations of Americans, and facilitated the rise of China as an economic, political, and military world power. Read more…

The sabotage of efficiency

November 23, 2021 3 comments

from Peter Radford

Sabotage.

Not the sort of sabotage we associate with plucky heroes undertaking dramatic action like blowing up railway lines and so on.

No, the sort of sabotage that is a great deal more subtle.  The kind that is summed up by the metaphorical boiled frog.  The slow devious and underhanded chipping away at something termite-like until the edifice is more fiction than fact.

That sort of sabotage.

The sort of sabotage that Thorstein Veblen wrote about a hundred years ago in his curious collection of papers later accumulated into the volume entitled “The Engineers and The Price System”.  I must admit that every time I read those papers I come away with a furrowed brow.  What on earth was Veblen getting at? Read more…

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