Home > energy > Political documents vs. scientific ones – #2

Political documents vs. scientific ones – #2

Comparing the graphs tells the whole story (See Political documents vs. scientific ones). A essential point not made is that the finding, proving, delineating and bringing on line of an oil reservoir takes time, typically three to ten years. So the early stages of the search for much of the production “to be found” should be visible “in the pipeline” already. Only it isn’t, at least not for Dr. al Husseini, former head of exploration and production for Saudi Aramco. As he says, “there aren’t enough projects”, and a lot of us agree with him.To my mind, the best study of future oil production has been done by the UK Energy Research Centre [August 2009]. They see an all-time peak in world crude-oil production likely by 2020 and almost certain by 2030. Note that this is within the planning horizon of every electric utility in the world.

If you want a summary with comments, post me offline at mmbtupr@aol.com.

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