Home > The Economy > How big is the Jobs-Gap?

How big is the Jobs-Gap?

 from Edward Fullbrook

On 7 July 2010 the OECD Factblog  http://blog.oecdfactblog.org/?p=5 reported that:

By the end of 2011, OECD countries will need to create 15 million new jobs just to get employment levels back to where they were before the crisis hit.

The report included the following graph.

The report then added:

Unfortunately, that’s only half the story. Include people who have stopped looking for work and part-timers who would like to work full-time, and the true numbers for unemployment and under-employment throughout the OECD area are nearly twice as high as headlines suggest.

But elsewhere on the same day, 7 July 1010, the OECD reported on its website http://clickcop.com/clickcop.cgi/110111A/http/www.oecd.org/document/9/0,3343,en_21571361_44315115_45602953_1_1_1_1,00.html that:

Today’s “jobs gap” varies widely between countries: in the United States nearly 10 million jobs need to be created. In Ireland, 318 000 jobs are needed to return to pre-crisis levels, that is one job for every 5 existing jobs today. Spain has lost 2.5 million jobs since the end of 2007. 

Altogether, there are 47 million unemployed in the OECD area today. But taking into account people who have given up looking for work or are working part-time but want to work full-time, the actual number of unemployed and under-employed in OECD countries could be about 80 million, according to the Outlook.

  1. George Hallam
    December 8, 2010 at 10:10 pm

    The UK needs 5 million extra jobs to end unemployment

    There are over 39 million people in the UK between the ages of 18 and 65 of these:
    29 million are working either full time or part-time.
    2½ million unemployed and are looking for work
    Together these 31 or so million are counted as the ‘economically active’ population
    There are over 8 million people of working age who are ‘economically inactive’, that is not in the work force. These include many who have taken early retirement because they have given up hope of finding work and 2 million on incapacity benefit who want to work.

    There are also 1½ million part-time workers count as ‘employed’ but who are looking for more hours. And this is without mentioning the millions of people who are over 65 but who would like to work one or two days a week if they had the chance.

    To give work to all these people will require the equivalent of at least 5 million full-time jobs (i.e. the equivalent of a full-time job = 40 hours of work per week.)

  2. merijnknibbe
    December 10, 2010 at 9:59 am

    Very good post. In the USA blogosphere, everybody is writing about unemployment. In Europe,there is a weird silence on the real problem, everybody is focused on debts and the Euro. Wrong! A double dip can happen – leading to another 10 or 20 million unemployed.

    We have to try every trick in the book, Austrian, Keynesian, whatever. Even if it’s building houses in Ireland (Romania would be a better place, however)… Plan A does have to include options like an ‘internal deflation’ of debts, lower rents, lower VAT on especially labor (works fine at the moment for small building projects in the Netherlands), Quantitative Easing: discretionary spendable income of consumers and non-financial companies has to increase, the fear of the future has to subside.

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