How long will it last? — 4 graphs
from Edward Fullbrook
If you have time, I recommend reading “The three crises: oil prices, climate change and international debt” on feasta.org. But here are four graphs regarding oil and natural gas from the article that illustrate some of the difficulties that we face.
|Graph 1: Oil is no longer being discovered at anything like the rate it is being used. Source: ASPO (www.peakoil.net)|
|Graph 2: The world’s production of conventional (i.e. readily extracted) oil is probably as high as it will ever be. However, the world’s total oil supply will probably carry on increasing for another four or five years if the price stays high enough for it to be profitable to produce it from expensive, energy-intensive sources such as the Canadian tar sands, or fields in polar regions and in deep water far offshore. Thereafter it is bound to decline. Source: ASPO
Graph 3: By about 2012, the world’s output of conventional gas will cease to increase, although a limited amount of extra gas will become available from unconventional sources, like methane from coal mines. Around 2040, the total supply of gas from all sources will fall sharply. Source: ASPO.
Graph 4 puts the supplies of both oil and gas together and shows that the amount of energy that the world can expect from both fuels will start to fall sharply after 2015. Source: ASPO.