USA’s U3 unemployment rate through 11 recessions
from David Ruccio
The new unemployment numbers (for September) are out and, well, they’re not pretty.
What did we learn?
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by only 148,000 in September, and the official (U3) unemployment rate was little changed at 7.2 percent. And that lack of improvement in the midst of the current “recovery” runs throughout the report: teenage unemployment (21.4 percent), the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 4.1 million), the civilian labor force participation rate (63.2 percent) and the employment-population ratio (58.6 percent), the number of involuntary part-time workers (7.5 million), and so on.
Looking at it another way: the total (U6) unemployment and underemployment rate was 13.1 percent (not seasonably adjusted), which means that 20.6 million American workers are being forced to try to get by either without a job or with part-time jobs when they’d prefer to have full-time jobs.
As for the rest—those “fortunate” enough to actually have some kind of full-time employment (as production or nonsupervisory employees)—their hourly earnings grew just 4 cents (from $20.20 in August).
We read or listened to a lot of numbers about deficits and debts during the debacle of the government shutdown and the debt-ceiling showdown. But, for the majority of the population, these are the numbers that really matter.
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—– look inside —– $5.94 / $20.00
—– look inside —– $4.90 / $8.00
—– look inside —– $15.99
—– look inside —– $5.99 / 12.99
—– look inside —– $5.93 / $12.99
—– look inside —– $4.97 / $9.90
—— Ugarteche, Puyana and Madi ——
Gerson Lima / Maria Alejandra Madi
Edward Fullbrook and Jamie Morgan
————— Michael Hudson ————–
Maria Alejandra Madi / Jack Reardon
————- Edward Fullbrook ————-
—————— Steve Keen —————–
————— Richard Smith —————
————– Gustavo Marques————
– Victor Beker and Beniamino Moro –
————– Lars Pålsson Syll ————-
—————– Stuart Birks —————-
Edward Fullbrook and Jamie Morgan
———— Armando Ochangco ———-
Shimshon Bichler / Jonathan Nitzan
————— Mauro Gallegati ————–
————— Herman Daly —————-
————— Asad Zaman —————
—————– C. T. Kurien —————
————— Robert Locke —————-
Real-World Economics Review Blog 
The financial debt spider is doing its work
Same story in the UK I imagine, despite the talk about economic recovery. Our government has done great damage to the current and future prosperity of its citizens. It is unforgivable.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nGU
Had the US labor force participation rate not fallen from 66% to 63% since ’07-’08 and millions of Americans not fallen off the unemployment rolls, the US U rate would be 10-11% instead of 7%, and the U-6 rate would be 17-18% instead of 13-14%, all else equal.
Yet, economists tell us that the Fed expanding bank reserves by $3 trillion and the banks hoarding $2.4 trillion in excess reserves and cash assets on their balance sheets has been the primary contributor to the U rate falling and the economy “recovering”.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nH0
However, real final sales per capita are no higher than in ’07.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nGT
The US labor force has grown just 1.1% since ’08 vs. 3.9% for the population.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nGV
Full-time employment is still down 5 million from the peak.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nGX
Full-time employment per capita is at the levels of the late ’70s to early ’80s.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nGZ
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nGY
Part-time employment, including per capita, is at or near secular highs.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=nH1
Real average hourly wages for private production and non-supervisory employees (the working-class bottom 80-90%) are at the same level as the late ’70s and 8-9% lower than in ’73.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Mohammad%20Zulfiqar-131024-US-Economy.php
Thus, it should be no surprise why food stamp growth has soared in the past decade. Increasing tens of millions of Americans can no longer earn enough from paid employment after tax, Social Security, and disability payments to subsist.
There is no “recovery” for the vast majority of Americans; rather, it is a slow-motion economic depression masked by record deficits to GDP and hopelessly leveraged financial speculation and price bubbles everywhere, e.g., stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, subprime auto loans, student loans, bank reserves, trophy properties, farmland, collectables, non-financial corporate debt to GDP, public and private debt to GDP, etc., and OBSCENE wealth, income, and political power to the top 0.01-0.1% to 1%.
“debt spider” ?? Isn’t that one of those fanciful creatures from a Brothers Grimm fairytale?
Read Marcy Kaptur (Congress Woman Ohio) on a summary of the US economy five years since the GFC:
Click to access CREC-2013-09-18-pt1-PgH5595-3.pdf
She introduced Bill HR.129 “Return to Prudent Banking Act of 2013”:
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c113:H.R.129:
while Senator Elizabeth Warren introduced Bill S.1282 “21 Century Glass-Steagall Act of 2013”:
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/F?c113:1:./temp/~c113jY3dRk:e1160:
Wall Street has been doing everything to derail these necessary initiatives, including delivering orders by CEOs in person to Obama during the government shutdown. I wonder how many American economists would write to their representatives to support these initiatives?
Also no one seems to think that it is really odd that a bunch of CEOs of TBTF banks has to deliver messages in person to the President. There was no real reason why their warnings about the debt ceiling problems could not have been communicated privately through normal channels. May be Julian Assange and Edward Snowden have made secret communications unsafe, except in person. The police state created by the US government is hindering its own operations.
Sorry the link to the Library of Congress seems unreliable. The bills from the government printing office:
Click to access BILLS-113hr129ih.pdf
Click to access BILLS-113s1282is.pdf
Very interesting chart and ideas that pushed me to make the following easy-to-grasp comparison.
One observes that the oil price shock in 1974 (if colours do not deceive me) has been quickly rehabilitated. It only took 15 months to completely adjust employment to its pre-crisis levels.
However, the financial crisis of 2007 has been deepening over 2 years and after 5 years of work out it still misses more than 2% to restore unemployment completely.
How can we associate this differential behaviour with a non-structural change (oil price) versus a structural change (financial bubble creation and bursting)? How can Minsky be involved in such a theorizing?
Thank you.
George Yambouranis