Home > Uncategorized > Country by country coronavirus case trajectories graph

Country by country coronavirus case trajectories graph

  1. simon theurl
    March 24, 2020 at 12:47 pm

    very interesting graph. But, is it case per/Population of the Country? otherwise it is not really comparable…

  2. March 24, 2020 at 1:00 pm

    Firstly plotting these on a log scale is highly misleading.

    Secondly this approach assumes that “number of people tested” is a constant that has the same value everywhere and over time. In reality, the numbers tested varies more or less randomly across countries and over time within countries. There are huge changes in testing regimes as govts like the USA hang back and then suddenly catch on to the necessity. The UK tested a moderate number from early one. Sth Korea tested a majority. And Iceland tested everyone.

    These numbers are effectively meaningless.

    We need to stop spreading this meaningless graph around. Get some figures on testing, and divide them by the number of positives for a better measure of spread. But I haven’t seen those figures anywhere yet.

  3. Third-culture
    March 24, 2020 at 2:30 pm

    What really matters is per capita deaths. What we’re trying to get at is the luckiness of the nation.

    Or if the nation is unlucky, the effectiveness of the nation in managing the virus. Poor management likely = high per capita deaths.

    Radically, you test everyone daily, maintain the normal business of life and isolate the elderly and medical conditions.
    On the other end you do low per capita testing and put in lock downs.

    Or somewhere in the middle you could test only those with symptoms.

    It would be nice to find yourself in a nation that is taking a more rational approach.

    It’s been months.
    Does anyone know:
    Can you develop immunity?
    Can you be infected multiple times?
    How infectious is someone with no symptoms?

  4. Ikonoclast
    March 25, 2020 at 2:50 am

    The log scale is not misleading if you understand log graphs. Presumably every one who comments on this blog understands them. The graph even has dotted lines to help. Any high school educated person person could understand what is going on in this graph if he or she put a few minutes into looking at it.

    It is true that here are vast differences in testing effectiveness and cover. This does not make the trends of the numbers meaningless. The rate of increase for many nations is still indicative of that nation’s position and relation to others on the trend dimension itself.

    All (or most) of the data about a pandemic is not known until well after the pandemic is over, the math is done and papers written peer-reviewed. In the midst of the pandemic, indicative trends are among the best data available and this data is still useful if governments are wise. Unfortunately, wise governments are even more rare than early data.

    Clearly, only Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong have taken good measures. China appears to have flattened the curve but can we really trust China’s figures? Italy appears finally to be flattening the curve after a frightful outbreak. Iran’s abrupt change of direction might an artifact of a lack of testing kits or even a political decision to suppress numbers. I would not trust Iran’s curve at the current time.

    According to experts;

    Can you develop immunity? – Very likely.
    Can you be infected multiple times? – Unlikely.
    How infectious is someone with no symptoms? – It varies but they definitely can be infectious in some case.

    This disease is so new (hence called “novel”) that as yet we know relatively little beyond its genetic structure and the existing case history database. COVID-19 is the official name. SARS COV-2 is the taxonomic name. It is a “first cousin” to SARS. Less lethality but a higher infectiousness. Overall, it will cause far more deaths than SARS now it has gone pandemic.

    • Meta Capitalism
      March 25, 2020 at 3:56 am

      Japan’s Limited Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic
      .
      With limited testing and little interest in social distancing, Japan’s coronavirus response is puzzling.
      .
      In regards to testing for the virus for example, while on the surface Japan may appear to have only a small number of confirmed cases at the present, this low number is most likely the result of its similarly low rate of testing. (here)

      .
      Japan, it seems, is not so transparent and I seriously doubt the real number of infected individuals is known. It is true that many people wear masks and there is less person-to-person physical contact in daily meetings. It is also true that the some are indeed social distancing; for example the trains are less crowded on the daily commute. Nevertheless, I have observed both in Nagoya and on the train individuals without masks and large crowds, including at local popular pubs.
      .
      But on the other hand the popular kaiten sushi restaurants are packed (perhaps because each group sits at its own somewhat self-contained booth, whereas the small mom-and-pop sushi places are suffering greatly.
      .
      Communal bathing at what are called Sentō while at some hours has declined, they are as busy as ever at other times. I cannot think of a better place to spread a pandemic.
      .
      Time will tell, but I have serious doubts the entire story is being told in the chart above regarding what is happening in Japan. If the information is not there it just isn’t there.

  5. Benjamin
    March 25, 2020 at 8:11 am

    I wonder why there seems to be only this one data set from an US University available to create such nice data charts. How are the data collected, who prepares them and are they comparable at all even though it all looks nice and full of colors…

  6. Third-culture
    March 25, 2020 at 8:37 am

    Assume everybody in the world self-isolates. In what amount of time would the virus end?

    We can’t all self-isolate because some will be needed to deliver necessary services and produce and administer. But assume these individuals are all fully suited and masked.

    Presumably in a month or so the virus would be ended. Some, despite the best efforts of health professionals, would perish (and with them their virus).

    Others would recover as the virus would be killed (I assume) by the defenses of the body.

    Some would never contract the virus.

    All the bats, or whatever animal transmitted to humans in the first place, would need to be taken care of.

    The above scenario isn’t realistic except perhaps in very small nations.

    But this scenario seems, more or less, to be the direction in which many nations are going as a high percentage of the world’s population is already under lock down. There will be leakage as some individuals, for whatever reason, will not follow the plan.

    What is the rationale for what has been written about which is second and more waves of the virus?

    What are the world deaths to date from the virus?
    What are the projected world deaths from the virus?
    How many world deaths have been attributed yearly to the flu?

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