Home > Uncategorized > Cambridge economics has died out

Cambridge economics has died out

from Lars Syll

A couple of weeks ago yours truly had a review of Diane Coyle’s Cogs and Monsters in WEA Commentaires. As I wrote, there’s a lot in the book to like, but unfortunately also some things very hard to swallow. James Galbraith seems to argue along the same lines in his Project Syndicate review:

Cogs and Monsters: What Economics Is, and What It Should Be: Coyle, Diane: 9780691210599: Amazon.com: BooksCoyle subscribes to the grand illusion that price adjustment is the economy’s prime mover. But as the Cambridge Keynesian economist Nicholas Kaldor noted in his slim 1985 book, Economics without Equilibrium, “the intuitive belief that prices are the key to everything” is simply wrong. The foundation on which Coyle places modern mainstream economics is a myth …

When I attended the University of Cambridge in 1974-75, I read Keynes, met Piero Sraffa, listened to Joan Robinson, and studied with Kaldor, Luigi Pasinetti, Richard Goodwin, Ajit Singh, Wynne Godley, Robin Marris, and Adrian Wood. Back then, it was understood at Cambridge that markets do nothing like what Coyle claims they do. Just as Einstein had erased Euclid’s axiom of parallels, Keynes’s General Theory had long since obliterated the supply curves for labor and saving, thereby eliminating the supposed markets for labor and capital.

It followed that the prices of production were set by costs (mostly labor costs and interest rates), while quantities were determined by effective demand. Markets were not treated as if they were magical. It was obvious that most resources and components did not move under the influence of an invisible hand. Rather, they moved according to contracts between companies on terms set by negotiation, as had been the case for more than a hundred years …

But the Cambridge school of economics that understood these things has died out. It was targeted in the great intellectual purge of the Thatcher era, and it was pried from its footholds in North America by early-stage McCarthyism, Reaganism, the MIT self-proclaimed Keynesians, and the Chicago School. Only a few scattered survivors remain today …

Coyle concludes that “economics needs to change.” She is surely right about that. But it is impossible for economics to advance as long as it remains anchored to the mainstream bedrock on which Coyle’s own training was based …

Cambridge has forgotten Cambridge, and it is poorer for it.

  1. yoshinorishiozawa
    January 19, 2022 at 4:30 am

    Lars Syll cited good and essential paragraphs from James Galbraith’s review of Diane Coyle’s Cogs and Monsters:

    Coyle subscribes to the grand illusion that price adjustment is the economy’s prime mover. But as the Cambridge Keynesian economist Nicholas Kaldor noted in his slim 1985 book, Economics without Equilibrium, “the intuitive belief that prices are the key to everything” is simply wrong. The foundation on which Coyle places modern mainstream economics is a myth …

    It followed that the prices of production were set by costs (mostly labor costs and interest rates), while quantities were determined by effective demand. Markets were not treated as if they were magical. It was obvious that most resources and components did not move under the influence of an invisible hand. Rather, they moved according to contracts between companies on terms set by negotiation, as had been the case for more than a hundred years.

    Why did Cambridge school of economics die out? Variety of reasons may be cited. In my opinion, the most important point is that heterodox economists in the Cambridge tradition should have shown how the market works if the prices of production were set by costs (and consequently if they do not work as balancing mechanism between demands and supplies) and if quantities were determined by effective demand (and consequently if they were not regulated by ups and downs of prices). So far, heterodox economists were too much concentrated on macroeconomics (even if they were inclined to criticize neoclassical macroeconomic theories). We need to explain how a large system that extends to a world-wide network of transactions and productions works not by prices but by the principle of effective demand. We need to explain what kind of functions they play, if the prices were not the main mechanism that brings demand and supply near to the equal?

    See my papers:
    (1) A new framework for analyzing technological change (2020)
    (2) The principle of effective demand: a new formulation (2021)

    N.B. If you have difficulty in obtaining a copy of (1), please send me an e-mail at y@shiozawa.net. (2) is published in an open-source journal. You can freely download it.

  2. yoshinorishiozawa
    January 19, 2022 at 7:48 pm

    This is a sentence I found in a review of Diane Coyle’s book Cogs and Monsters in Cato Institute Web page:

    [Diane Coyle] understands Friedrich Hayek’s insight, expressed in his 1945 article “The Use of Knowledge in Society,” that only a market can aggregate individuals’ local knowledge and that a central planner would not have access to that knowledge. From David R. Henderson’s “Where’s the Beef?” REGULATION, Fall 2021.

    This is an estimate of the 180 degree away from James Galbraith. Why is this kind of misunderstanding possible? This is a clear sign of confusion that underlies economic thinking.

    In Section 3 “Comparision of two value systems” of my paper A new framework for analyzing technological change (JEE 30, 2020), I compared two functions of prices: allocative versus dynamic efficiency. Hayek emphasized the importance of allocative efficiency in his paper: The Use of Knowledge in Society (1945). In my opinion, this misunderstands the nature or dynamics of modern capitalism. Increase of real wages of workers is only possible by introductions of more “efficient” production techniques. The “efficiency” here only means that the unit cost of the new technique is less than that of the incumbent ones. With this half-blind choice of production techniques the economy normally progressed and progresses amazingly provided that sufficient effective demand is given. The effect of this groping process is tremendous. Hayek and Coyle misunderstand this mechanism and base their arguments on this misunderstanding.

    • Meta Capitalism
      January 20, 2022 at 12:55 am

      ECONOMIC MYTHMAKING “Workers’ leverage is gone. Companies are not creating jobs. Unions that negotiated big wage increases in the 1970s are shadows of their former selves. Cost-of-living adjustments, once commonplace, have disappeared. And the movement of jobs offshore, or the threat of it, has conditioned workers to not even ask for a raise, fearing they will join the millions already laid off.”1 —LOUIS UCHITELLE, New York Times, August 1, 2008
      “The conservative response to this trend verges somewhere between the obsolete and the irrelevant. Conservatives need to stop denying reality. The stagnation of the incomes of middle-class Americans is a fact.”2 —DAVID FRUM, speechwriter, President GEORGE W. BUSH August 2008

      [T]he real wage will generally go up if mangers of firms choose more profitable techniques and if wage and markup rates remain constant. ~ Shiozawa and Economic Myth Making

      Increase of real wages of workers is only possible by introductions of more “efficient” production techniques. ~ Shiozawa Ignoring Real-World Divergence of Wages and Productivity Growth

      It may have been true once that workers shared in productivity gains, but for a long time now, especially in the United States, this has not been true. It is economic myth making to claim new technology leads to higher real wages. The devil is in the details. Only the few who are highly skilled benefit from these higher _real wages_ (~10% or less) while the lion’s share of these gains to the .01% who own the monopoly capital. It is a myth that higher productivity leads to higher wages when reality shows real wages have become detached from productivity growth. The problem with literature only economists like Shiozawa is they parrot old canards that are obsolete and no longer true. They operate in a world of junk economics divorced from changing reality ending up as little more than intellectual parrots of half-truths that may have once been true but long ago have ceased to be true due to ever changing circumstances of economic power relations. In the days when unions were strong, they could negotiate a fair share of productivity gains thereby increasing their real wages. Those days are long gone in the age of union busting monopolies like Amazon. Shiozawa’s repeated parroting of the falsehood that new technology leads to higher real wages devoid of context is typical of the conservative response to real-world realities; ignore reality and parrot ideology.

      Real Wages: Economic jargon uses the term “real” in an idiosyncratic way. It refers only to a price adjustment, often applied to concepts that are somewhat unreal to start with. “Real wages” refer to money wages adjusted for the erosion of purchasing power as measured by the rise in the consumer price index (CPI). The adjustment is supposed to reflect the decline in purchasing power of nominal wages when the cost of living rises. This measure shows that there has not been a real gain of annual wages since the 1970s. If annual wages rise by a nominal amount (say, 2% a year), but consumer prices also rise by this much, there has been no real gain. And if the CPI rises faster than wages, wage-earners “really” receive less.

      But even this measure fails to reflect the erosion of labor’s real living standards. In recent years wage earners have suffered from an much more unpleasant reality. They are not able to consume anywhere near what they are paid, because a rising proportion of their household budget must now be paid to the FIRE sector as debt service, rent and other housing costs and insurance, as well as steeper FICA wage withholding. (The “Hudson Bubble Model” later in this book explains the accounting.) So what really is “real” is substantially less than what is reported as real wages. The CPI refers to the shrinking proportion of household budgets (perhaps as little as one third) that is spent on commodities. What is missing is the rising carve-out for debt, rent, and other FIRE-sector rake-offs. (J IS FOR JUNK ECONOMICS: A Guide To Reality In An Age Of Deception – Michael Hudson 2017 )

      Real Wealth: The market price of assets deflated by the rise in the consumer price index (CPI) or a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) price deflator for goods and services. The implication is that wealth is eroded when wages or prices rise. But the wealthy do not spend much of their income on consumption, so this adjustment seems irrelevant.

      The way that most of the One Percent makes its fortunes is not “real” in the sense of producing value in the form of goods and services. “Wealth” today refers not only to tangible means of production, but to any bankable asset. A “wealth” fund consists of financial claims on society’s means of production (in the form of mortgages and other bank loans, stocks and bonds) – what Frederick Soddy called virtual wealth, which rightly should appear on the liabilities side of the economy’s balance sheet.

      The problem with confusing real wealth with financial claims is that rising access prices for housing and other basic needs is treated as a gain for “the economy” as a whole. The middle class imagines itself to be growing wealthier as the price of its housing rises – on credit – causing debt deflation for the overall economy and thus slowing real wealth creation. (J IS FOR JUNK ECONOMICS: A Guide To Reality In An Age Of Deception – Michael Hudson 2017 )

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