Malthus redux? 2. The danger is real

According to the World Watch Institute, relative food prices are increasing. Big Deal? Yes. For most people: big deal. Part of the executive summary of a Unicef report (emphasis added), Escalating food prices: the threat to poor households´:

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After outlining the possible causes of soaring global food prices, including weather shocks, exchange rate fluctuations and financial speculation, the paper analyzes local food price trends in 58 developing countries using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). The paper finds local food price increases in more than two-thirds of developing countries in our sample during the latter half of 2010, closely trailing those in global food markets, at a slower but still substantial rate of increase (7.2 percent on average between May and November 2010). More importantly, on the aggregate domestic food price levels have remained alarmingly high compared to pre-2007-08 crisis levels (about 55 percent higher, on average, in November 2010 compared to May 2007), implying that poor and vulnerable populations in many developing countries have been relentlessly coping with high food costs. Since 2008, poor households have exhausted coping strategies, such as eating fewer meals, cutting health expenditures, increasing debt and working longer hours in the informal sector, and their capacity for resilience is very limited in 2011. In the recent uptick, the CEE/CIS, Latin America and South Asia regions appear to be those hardest hit.

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We further propose a child lens as a guiding principle for designing policy responses to food price increases and achieving food security. Moreover, as many developing country governments are undergoing fiscal consolidation and cutting social protection services and food subsidies in the process, we call for a turn from austerity-based fiscal policies to inclusive, food security responses in developing countries that are threatened by rising food prices. The paper concludes by advocating for urgent policy actions at national and international levels to ensure a “Recovery for All” that will eradicate hunger and malnutrition among children and poor households.