Two little black swans
Most tables of the normal distribution stop at 3 standard distributions or, to state this differently, at the point were (assuming a stable world) the chance that an individual estimate of a variable is farther removed from the average of all estimated variables is 1:1000. Let’s call this the black swan point. Estimates further removed from the average are ‘black swans’. Such estimates might indicate that we’ve moved to a new situation with a new average. Ahem: arctic and antarctic sea ice, 13/11/2016, according to the NCIS:
Leave a comment Cancel reply
This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.
Real-World Economics Review
WEA Books
follow this blog on Twitter
Top Posts- last 48 hours
- DSGE models — a total waste of time
- Lost opportunities?
- Weekend read - A STIGLITZ ERROR?
- USA: The Great Prosperity / The Great Regression : 5 charts
- The problem with electric vehicles
- “If poor people knew how rich rich people are, there would be riots in the streets”
- The current state of game theory
- What is (wrong with) neoclassical economics?
- 10 Most Popular Posts
- American wealth redistribution 1989-2016
"We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them." Albert Einstein
Regular Contributors
Real World Economics Review
The RWER is a free open-access journal, but with access to the current issue restricted to its 25,952 subscribers (07/12/16). Subscriptions are free. Over one million full-text copies of RWER papers are downloaded per year.
WEA online conference: Trade Wars after Coronavirus
Comments on recent RWER issues
————– WEA Paperbacks ————– ———– available at low prices ———– ————- on most Amazons ————-
WEA Periodicals
----- World Economics Association ----- founded 2011 – today 13,800 members
Recent Comments
- George H. Blackford on DSGE models — a total waste of time
- ghholtham on Lost opportunities?
- ghholtham on DSGE models — a total waste of time
- ghholtham on DSGE models — a total waste of time
- David Harold Chester on DSGE models — a total waste of time
- David Harold Chester on Lost opportunities?
- Taco Bottema on Lost opportunities?
- George H. Blackford on DSGE models — a total waste of time
- Stuart.Mac McBurney on Lost opportunities?
- ghholtham on Weekend read – A STIGLITZ ERROR?
- David Harold Chester on Weekend read – A STIGLITZ ERROR?
- David Harold Chester on Weekend read – A STIGLITZ ERROR?
- sackergeoff on With a modest financial transactions tax, Jim Simons would not have been superrich
- CBASILOVECCHIO on Weekend read – A STIGLITZ ERROR?
- David Harold Chester on Weekend read – A STIGLITZ ERROR?
Comments on issue 74 - repaired
Comments on RWER issues
WEA Online Conferences
—- More WEA Paperbacks —-
———— Armando Ochangco ———-
Shimshon Bichler / Jonathan Nitzan
————— Herman Daly —————-
————— Asad Zaman —————
—————– C. T. Kurien —————
————— Robert Locke —————-
Guidelines for Comments
• This blog is renowned for its high level of comment discussion. These guidelines exist to further that reputation.
• Engage with the arguments of the post and of your fellow discussants.
• Try not to flood discussion threads with only your comments.
• Do not post slight variations of the same comment under multiple posts.
• Show your fellow discussants the same courtesy you would if you were sitting around a table with them.
Most downloaded RWER papers
- What Is Neoclassical Economics? (Christian Arnsperger and Yanis Varoufakis)
- Trade and inequality: The role of economists (Dean Baker)
- The state of China’s economy 2009 (James Angresano)
- The housing bubble and the financial crisis (Dean Baker)
- Green capitalism: the god that failed (Richard Smith)
- Global finance in crisis (Jacques Sapir)
- Why some countries are poor and some rich: a non-Eurocentric view (Deniz Kellecioglu)
- New thinking on poverty (Paul Shaffer)
- Debunking the theory of the firm—a chronology (Steve Keen and Russell Standish)
Family Links
Contact
follow this blog on Twitter
RWER Board of Editors
Nicola Acocella (Italy, University of Rome) Robert Costanza (USA, Portland State University) Wolfgang Drechsler ( Estonia, Tallinn University of Technology) Kevin Gallagher (USA, Boston University) Jo Marie Griesgraber (USA, New Rules for Global Finance Coalition) Bernard Guerrien (France, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) Michael Hudson (USA, University of Missouri at Kansas City) Frederic S. Lee (USA, University of Missouri at Kansas City) Anne Mayhew (USA, University of Tennessee) Gustavo Marqués (Argentina, Universidad de Buenos Aires) Julie A. Nelson (USA, University of Massachusetts, Boston) Paul Ormerod (UK, Volterra Consulting) Richard Parker (USA, Harvard University) Ann Pettifor (UK, Policy Research in Macroeconomics) Alicia Puyana (Mexico, Latin American School of Social Sciences) Jacques Sapir (France, École des hautes études en sciences socials) Peter Söderbaum (Sweden, School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology) Peter Radford (USA, The Radford Free Press) David Ruccio (USA, Notre Dame University) Immanuel Wallerstein (USA, Yale University)
The overall picture down Sth is still an anomaly in the opposite direction: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2016/11/Figure4-1.png
I can’t find the long term winter min graph but it must be somewhere on nsidc site since I have viewed it only a few days ago. According to it the ice in the Antarctic is expanding and thickening on the 30 year trend. The UN panel reportedly claims that this too is caused by global warming but the consequence of this explanation confirms a mitigating effect on the rising sea levels.
These data actually state that the long term (I mean: really long term thousands of years) trend of thickening ice in some parts of Antartica is rapidly getting less strong.
Found it:
The 30 year trend shows an increase in the extent of Antarctic ice, although the last data point is below the trendline.
Since 1981? Not much of a sample.