Home > Uncategorized > Two little black swans

Two little black swans


Most tables of the normal distribution stop at 3 standard distributions or, to state this differently, at the point were (assuming a stable world) the chance that an individual estimate of a variable is farther removed from the average of all estimated variables is 1:1000. Let’s call this the black swan point. Estimates further removed from the average are ‘black swans’. Such estimates might indicate that we’ve moved to a new situation with a new average. Ahem: arctic and antarctic sea ice, 13/11/2016, according to the NCIS:



  1. November 14, 2016 at 8:16 pm

    The overall picture down Sth is still an anomaly in the opposite direction: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2016/11/Figure4-1.png

    I can’t find the long term winter min graph but it must be somewhere on nsidc site since I have viewed it only a few days ago. According to it the ice in the Antarctic is expanding and thickening on the 30 year trend. The UN panel reportedly claims that this too is caused by global warming but the consequence of this explanation confirms a mitigating effect on the rising sea levels.

    • merijntknibbe
      November 14, 2016 at 10:26 pm

      These data actually state that the long term (I mean: really long term thousands of years) trend of thickening ice in some parts of Antartica is rapidly getting less strong.

  2. November 15, 2016 at 11:51 am

    Found it:

    The 30 year trend shows an increase in the extent of Antarctic ice, although the last data point is below the trendline.

  3. November 15, 2016 at 1:52 pm

    Since 1981? Not much of a sample.

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