Home > Uncategorized > Above the rising trend. Update on global temperature

Above the rising trend. Update on global temperature

From: Geoff Davies (reblogged from: Our better nature)

(a comparable graph not including 2016 has been published a few days ago, developments in 2016 are however so extreme and out of sample that this data has to be included, too, M.K.)

A couple of graphs show the extraordinary nature of the present situation.


1998 used to be one of the biggest outliers from the general trend. 2016 is going way beyond that. The second graph shows the deviation from the recent trend more clearly:


It seems the recent 3-year increase, by about 0.36°C, is unprecedented in the 136-year record.

The obfuscators/deniers loved to start their graphs at 1998 to “prove” there was no subsequent global warming. It always was a blatant distortion. There never was a pause. Even if it had been a pause, it was still much hotter than pre-industrial temperatures. Now it is blown out of the water. Conspiracy is the only resort.


  1. patrick newman
    November 16, 2016 at 10:40 am

    The only answer to the deniers unfortunately is a series of climate related disasters affecting the Western world leading to much loss of life. I dont think this will be a long time coming!

  2. November 16, 2016 at 10:51 am

    See my Blog # 41 at


    It will get even worse

    David Anderson

  3. November 16, 2016 at 12:32 pm

    This is an emergency requiring focus of distributed intelligence to begin operating independently of governments that are promoting infinite growth. Reposting graphs with link at zerwastenews.org

    I have a beginning tool which I call nuanced nuanced preference voting – there can be ties and a new vote may be needed. One of you must know a group of talented web programmers near one of your universities willing to work at market rate under my caretaker position for autonomousDemocracy.org

    The only thing radical about this is that autonomous democracy is outside of government in order to avoid corruption or capture by oligarchs. Please use contact@ferrocement.com

  4. November 16, 2016 at 5:55 pm

    “Honesty about evidence is moral behavior.” –Edward Weber: Letter to Editor, New Scientist, September 10th, 2016.

    Thank you, Geoff Davies, for this post.

  5. charlie
    November 17, 2016 at 6:59 pm

    and thanks from this old ecological economist … i have been a follower of Schneider and Hansen since the 70’s but the deniers know much better .. we are so in the soup

  6. charlie
    November 17, 2016 at 7:02 pm

    and look at the temperature anomaly in the arctic … currently 30 C above expected for November

  7. January 23, 2017 at 9:17 pm

    Do you intend to finalize this for 2016? It is a great graph. Thanks for your work and I would do it myself but it is not my graph.

  8. January 25, 2017 at 11:41 am

    This graph is so significant that, had it not corresponded with the evidence of my own eyes, I would want to know how it was compiled. What is significant is that the trend line goes up (as one might expect) during World War II when everybody was rushing about dropping bombs or trying to dampen down burning houses; but the beginning of the persistant steep rise corresponds with the widespread introduction of high altitude jet planes in the 1970s, and the dramatic rise last year with UK weather forecasts of warm air persistently rushing past us to towards Greenland, and in Antarctica an iceberg the size of Wales being about to break off the Antarctic ice shelf. (Here its been freezing)!

    When on holiday in France last year we had a day when jet trails dissipated slowly, and unbelievably, the whole sky became covered with a fine net of trails, showing just how much traffic there was up there, crossing the English Channel. I’ve long been saying on physical grounds (carbon dioxide being heavier than air) that the problem of global warming was due not so much due to the use of fossil fuels as such, but to our taking it up into the stratosphere, where it really does act like a greenhouse rather than like a cloche over the cities in which we merely drive around.

    I’ve had a bad conscience for years about flying to see my son in Australia, but it has become quite obvious there are not many prepared to take this seriously. Whether or not it means the end of the world so far as mankind is concerned, they just don’t want to know, just like they don’t want to know about the spread of human, animal and plant diseases by Empire builders and global Free Trading; jet travel is indeed wonderful and (it seems) “affordable”, as is having the world’s foodstuffs and timber available all the year round. Thank goodness primary producers like Australia have woken up to the dangers of “free” biological imports, but I do hope scientists at least will wake up quickly to the dangers of global jet-setting and get their heads round inventing less dangerous ways of visiting our globally dispersed children, as they so brilliantly providing us with clean electric power.

    Let me end by echoing Larry Motus. Thank you, Geoff Davies, for this post.

  9. January 25, 2017 at 4:53 pm

    Will someone please put the 2016 dot on this graph. I believe it is near the top of the almost vertical blue line yet would like to see what others think and if someone is brave enough to place a 2016 mark.

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